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万向娱乐|中国股市动向令全球关注

中国股市6日和7日连续两天大幅上涨恢复了股民的一些信心,也引发紧盯中国股市的外国媒体高度关注。新加坡《联合早报》称,中国证监会4日以来多次发声,支持上市公司并购重组、推动上市公司提升投资价值、打击利用融券交易实施不当套利、从严打击欺诈发行、财务造假、操纵市场恶意做空等行为,并回应股票质押、融资担保等问题。该报认为,中国政府的“救市”范围明显扩大,对打击操纵市场的行为也不再停留于喊口号,明显缓解了市场恐慌。《华尔街日报》引述分析人士的话称,中国政府将重心转向维护市场稳定,这会为中国股市的悲观情绪“松绑”提供催化剂;一连串的干预行动表明,中国股市的严重低迷表现可能已接近政府的容忍限度。7日,中国证监会迎来主要领导调整,金融系统资深人士吴清成为新任证监会主席。美国彭博社就此评论称,吴清的任命是“出人意料的举动”,“可能预示着中国高层将采取更强有力的措施来结束股市的下跌”。

时隔两个月,沪深两市成交额突破万亿元

三大股指是各界观察中国股市的主要风向标。继前一天的大幅上涨后,三大股指7日再次集体收涨,沪指报收2829.7点,涨幅1.44%,成交额4959亿元;深成指报收8708.24点,涨幅2.93%,成交额5260亿元;创业板指报收1707.02点,涨幅2.37%。自2023年11月21日以来,7日沪深两市成交额重回万亿规模。

7日,中国证监会主要领导调整的消息引发关注。中共中央决定,任命吴清同志为中国证券监督管理委员会党委书记,免去易会满同志的中国证券监督管理委员会党委书记职务。国务院决定,任命吴清同志为中国证券监督管理委员会主席,免去易会满同志的中国证券监督管理委员会主席职务。英国《金融时报》称,近几个月来,监管机构面临着恢复对中国股市信心的压力。彭博社称,吴清是中国金融业资深人士,曾因在2000年代中期严厉打击交易员的违法行为赢得赞誉,他的任命“可能预示着中国高层将采取更强有力的措施来结束股市的下跌”。

“中国政府出手救市,股市创多年来最佳单日表现。”《华尔街日报》称,中国股市6日创下多年来最佳单日表现。中国政府暗示有意支撑股市,规模达1.24万亿美元的主权财富基金中投公司旗下子公司中央汇金发布公告,将持续加大增持ETF规模和力度。证监会称,将继续协调引导公募基金、私募基金、证券公司、社保基金、保险机构、年金基金等各类机构投资者更大力度入市。在一份“答记者问”中,证监会还建议中国上市公司充分运用好现有“工具箱”来提振投资者信心,维护市场稳定,包括股份回购、大股东增持和常态化分红等市场工具。分析人士表示,综合来看,这一系列消息表明,中国政府对中国股市现状有了新的紧迫感。

美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)网站7日报道称,资产管理平台Clocktower集团合伙人兼首席策略师马尔科·帕皮克表示,过去12个月他一直看空中国股市,上周还告诉投资者“不要抄底”。但他现在认为,“我们可能已经看到投资者情绪触底”,随着当局发出协调一致的支持努力,未来几个交易日,中国股市可能上涨。他认为,中国政府的关注点不仅仅是稳定股市,而是宏观经济的基本面。

彭博社7日关注到,中国企业正加大股票回购力度。报道称,上个月,中国内地和香港上市公司分别花140亿元人民币和210亿港元回购股份,两者都创下自2021年彭博社开始编制数据以来的最高纪录。瑞士投资管理公司GAM的基金经理科特西说,公司回购和国家队买进是积极的信号。企业比外部投资者更了解自己的业务,他们创纪录地回购股份表明,企业认为自己的业务在股市上被低估了。相关数据显示,近日沪深两市已有几百家公司发布了回购股份相关公告。

“交易活动已飙升至五个月以来的高位”

“中国一些最大上市公司的交易活动已飙升至5个月以来的高位。”英国《金融时报》7日称,据该报对中国数据提供商Wind数据的分析统计,沪深300、中证500和中证1000指数(这些指数包括了中国股市交易活动的大部分)所含股票的日成交额7日升至6990亿元人民币,为2023年8月28日以来的最高水平。

德国《世界金融市场》7日问道:中国股市大幅上涨,这是一个转折点的开始吗?人们对各方进一步共同努力提振股市的希望越来越大。中国监管机构更加积极主动的立场让人想起2015年,当时中国监管机构严厉打击市场投机交易,并指示一些投资者避免出售股票。报道认为,这预示着北京这次将面临一场艰苦的战斗。“从长远来看,改革和政策措施对支撑市场最为重要。总而言之,这关系到宏观经济的复苏和稳定。”

专注于市场研究的美国MarketPlace网站称,上周沪指和深指触及5年来新低,“就像在美国一样,在中国,股市不是经济”。文章称,“尽管中国股市陷入困境,但重要的是不要夸大其情况”。康奈尔大学经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示,中国股市的困境“不是美国在2008年(经济危机)甚至新冠疫情期间”那种情况。报道称,对于那些想在选举年幸灾乐祸的美国政客,普拉萨德提出了警告。“最终,中国发生的事情可能会对美国产生反弹效应,因为美国不是全球经济中的孤岛”,他说,许多中国大公司在美国证券交易所上市,也可能在美国公民的401(k)中(指退休金账户)。

关键是信心

《联合早报》7日发表评论文章认为,中国股市陷入今天的局面,很大程度上是信心问题。英国《每日星报》称,经济增长的复苏不是自动的,中国必须应对一些挑战。在短期内,恢复信心可能比扩大信贷更重要。

《经济学人》6日称,中国经济很大程度上取决于一个增长来源:提高14亿多人口的消费。中国官员曾在多个场合强调提振消费的重要性。2月2日,国际货币基金组织发布了一份关于中国经济前景的新报告,其中61次提到“消费”,这是有道理的。

上述报道称,中国的消费者往往更喜欢储蓄,而不是消费。在消费占国内生产总值(GDP)百分比这一指标上,中国在全球排名靠后。由此,中国对世界经济的贡献存在巨大的不平衡。经济学家迈克尔·佩蒂斯称,中国占全球投资的32%,经济总量的18%,但仅占消费的13%。即使在新兴经济体中,中国也很突出,与其他国家形成鲜明对比。好消息是,随着新冠疫情的限制结束,人们可以重返餐馆、商店和旅行,2023年已经出现了一些复苏。据中国国家统计局的数据,2023年最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为82.5%,这是1999年以来的最高水平。

“矛盾的信息”,北美货运市场信息网站FreightWaves称,这些天来自中国的宏观经济和贸易数据似乎存在矛盾:尽管一些数据不佳,但中国向美国发送的海运集装箱货运量达到自2022年5月以来的最高水平。这部分是因为中国农历新年临近,工厂在工人放假前将大量货物运往港口。但今年的峰值远高于2023年的农历新年,且全年货运量一直在增加。▲

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